Workstation market seeing some return of momentum in Q3’11

Last quarter, we labeled the workstation market's behavior with a simple one-word description: normal. Shipment results weren't great, but they weren't bad either. Now in less volatile times, no vendor would get enthused by such tepid numbers. But these haven't been those times.

Not that anyone in our industry needs the refresher, but remember that we hadn't really seen anything approaching typical behavior in several years. From mid-2008 to mid-2011, we lived through the biggest economic downturn in a generation, followed by a relatively steady, but not stutter-free, recovery. Meanwhile, the closely related market for professional graphics, its results a harbinger for workstations, found its recovery pace a bit too brisk, stumbling into a mild — and fortunately short-term — second dip.  In that context, the neither hot nor cold results from the workstation market's second quarter might not elicit any celebration, but we imagine they at least calmed some still-frayed nerves.

Q2's market stability begged the question: would there be a resumption of growth in the third quarter, more stability, or worse, a return to weakness. Well, the numbers are in, and they look good. Around 1.02 million workstations shipped worldwide in the third quarter, representing robust 12.5% sequential growth as well as 20.1% year-over-year. The quarter saw a new high-water mark for the market, marking the first time shipments have exceeded 1 million units.

Q3 did represent a meaningful push forward, but the question remains as to whether it will last. Global economic uncertainty remains in abundant supply. The financial picture in Europe continues to change on a daily basis — one minute, it's a doomsday scenario and the next a light appears at the end of the tunnel. Until the volatility in financial markets subsides, we have no strong confidence that the workstation market (really any market, for that matter) will find a steady pace forward. That said, we do expect growth to resume, albeit modestly.

Among vendors, HP reinforced its top position in workstations, despite the company's awkward about-face in its plans for the Personal Systems Group (PSG), the business unit that houses the company's workstation business. Dell remained at number two, though lagging further, while Lenovo gained ground at number three, in part thanks to its nascent joint venture with NEC. And in the closely related market for professional graphics hardware, Nvidia continued its dominance of the market, with its Quadro brand stubbornly refusing to cede much share to a more competitive FirePro line from AMD.

  • Methodology
    • Some – but not all - white-box coverage
    • Effective Q3'11, Lenovo inherits NEC workstation share
  • Workstation market seeing some return of momentum in Q3'11
    • ASPs in line with general market conditions and macro-trends
    • Workstation shares by machine class
      • The distribution of mobile versus deskside in workstations is very different than in broader PC markets
    • Workstation shares by vendor
    • HP escapes Apotheker's spin-off debacle relatively unscathed
    • It's not all about #1 and #2 any more … here comes Lenovo!
      • Vendor shares per segment
    • Intel stands alone as CPU supplier to the workstation industry
      • What happened to AMD CPUs for workstations?
      • Single versus multi-socket CPU
    • Windows dominates, with Linux holding minority share
    • Tier 1 distribution of workstations by geography
      • EMEA and APexJ: breakdowns by sub-region
  • Full-year calendar 2010 results for workstations
  • Professional graphics shipments remain in holding pattern in Q3'11
    • The quarter's highlight: stronger ASPs
    • Professional graphics hardware market breakdown by product class
    • AMD: relatively little to show for its improved execution
  • Full-year calendar 2010 results for professional graphics hardware
  • Outlook on the workstation and professional graphics markets
  • Appendix A: Workstation vendor shares per EMEA sub-region

Tables and figures

  • Table 1 Professional graphics more volatile, but a useful leading indicator for workstations
  • Table 2 Total workstation market revenue (in $M)
  • Table 3 Typical Q3'11 characteristics of desktop workstation classes
  • Table 4 Typical Q3'11 characteristics of mobile workstation classes
  • Table 5 History of workstation unit share by vendor
  • Table 6 Historical share of Windows and Linux in x86 based workstations
  • Table 7 Total workstations shipped by year (units and revenue)
  • Table 8 Yearly workstation ASPs (in dollars)
  • Table 9 Growth (loss) of Tier 1 vendors’ unit shares
  • Table 10 Worldwide shipments of professional graphics (K units, including mobiles)
  • Table 11 Worldwide quarterly revenue of professional graphics add-in cards ($M, no mobiles) 34
  • Table 12 Professional graphics hardware classes and price bands
  • Table 13 Professional graphics market share history by vendor (units)
  • Table 14 Professional graphics add-in card (no mobiles) revenue history by vendor
  • Table 15 Professional graphics hardware, yearly totals
  • Table 16 Professional graphics add-in card ASPs, yearly
  • Figure 1 Workstation ASPs over time
  • Figure 2 History of overall workstation unit distribution, by class
  • Figure 3 Unlike broader PC market, deskbound workstations still outsell mobiles ~3:1
  • Figure 4 In firm control as market leader, HP is further separating itself from #2 Dell
  • Figure 5 Shares of mobile workstation units, by vendor
  • Figure 6 Shares of Entry class workstation units, by vendor
  • Figure 7 Shares of Mid-range workstation units, by vendor
  • Figure 8 Intel shipments into Tier 1 workstation market by processor (unit share of Intel platform by processor)
  • Figure 9 The rise and fall of Opteron in the workstation platform
  • Figure 10 Share of dual-capable (not necessarily dual-populated) workstations as a percentage of all deskbound systems
  • Figure 11 Attach rate for the 2nd CPU in dual-capable deskbound workstations
  • Figure 12 Geographic distribution (by unit shipments) over time
  • Figure 13 Tier 1 vendor shares of U.S. over time
  • Figure 14 Tier 1 vendor shares of EMEA over time
  • Figure 15 Tier 1 vendor shares of Asia/Pac (excluding Japan) over time
  • Figure 16 Tier 1 vendor shares of Japan region time
  • Figure 17 Tier 1 vendor shares of Rest of World (ROW) region over time
  • Figure 18 EMEA breakdown by sub-region
  • Figure 19 Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) breakdown by sub-region
  • Figure 20 China sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 21 India sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 22 Rest of APexJ sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 23 Overall yearly workstation unit share by vendor
  • Figure 24 Overall yearly workstation revenue share by vendor
  • Figure 25 Worldwide shipments of professional graphics (K units, including mobiles)
  • Figure 26 Professional graphics card ASPs, by class over time
  • Figure 27 The ultra-high end in Q2’11 outsold the high end by a wide margin
  • Figure 28 Professional graphics unit share history, by class
  • Figure 29 Professional graphics add-in card revenue
  • Figure 30 Vendor unit share history: mobile professional graphics segment
  • Figure 31 Vendor unit share history: professional 2D add-in card segment
  • Figure 32 Vendor unit share history: entry 3D add-in card segment
  • Figure 33 Vendor unit share history: mid-range 3D add-in card segment
  • Figure 34 Vendor shares of combined High+Ultra-high professional segment over time
  • Figure 35 Workstation market forecast (units)
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AS CES goeth, so goeth the industry

For those of you who went to CES this year, you should have recovered by now. And if you suffered through 2011, you should be seeing some little rays of sunshine and hope for the on-coming year. And if you accept my premise about CES being a leading indicator, then you should feel pretty good about 2012.

I first proposed CES as a leading indicator about eight or nine years ago. If you look at the following chart which covers the past ten years you can see definite correlations.

What I think the data really represents is the manufacturers and dealers long-range vision, and the adjustment they make (on costs) in anticipation of it. I think the suppliers to the CE industry see order rates dropping and then cut back on expenses. That cause fewer people to go to conferences, and when the picture looks brighter, they want to be at the head of the pack and rush back to CES. Also, the suppliers will typically do massive product rework and development during the down times so they will be in a position to capitalize on the upswing—and what better place to show your stuff than at CES.

However, we may have a natural barrier, just like the one we may be facing with Moore’s Law. As extraordinary as Las Vegas is, it does have an entropic limit and can’t expand forever (although there is still lot empty lots in the town.) There were one hundred and fifty-three thousand people squeezed into the taxi queues, restaurants, and hotels, and they were all very hard to avoid if you were trying to get from point A to B. The monorail was jammed packed, the buses had lines that extended the length of the Convention Center, and if you didn’t make a reservation at a restaurant long ago, it’s a the hotel or a big Mac for you.

CES is ridiculously large, and difficult to navigate. The booth addressing system is absurd and illogical, and the whole experience is unpleasant. That pain and suffering is offset by the surprises that can be found there, the opportunity to see clients you haven’t touched for a few months, and the stories. In general, the keynotes are a total waste of time, especially since you can watch them on YouTube almost in real time.

It’s a mixed message of a show. There are technology companies like ARM, Imagination, MIPS, and Vivante selling to component builders like Freescale, Intel, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, who in turn are trying to sell to device builders like HTC, LG, Motorola, and Sony, who are trying to sell to dealers and distributors like BillyJoe’s TV Shoppee and Best Buy. But BillyJoe wanders into Nvidia’s stand, and Qualcomm wanders into Best Buy, and others just wander, often in a circle trying to figure it all out.

It is in every sense of the word a bazaar, and with almost the same degree of organization as the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul—spices in one section, leather goods over there, rugs to the left.

CES needs to be broken up. The exhibitors would appreciate it, the city’s infrastructure would appreciate it, the attendees would appreciate it, and the city’s taxes and retail turn-over would be greater.

If CES Auto was one day and it was one I missed, how would that impact me? Not a bit. And if it was important for me to see cars with seven 20-inch woofers and chrome plated DVD players, then I’d do that. Do I really need to see iPod covers, stainless steel microphones (one can only wonder why they are needed), or whatever those things over in the corner of the north hall are?

And then there is the rat population consideration—at a critical density, wars break out among rats. Are a bunch of stressed out, hung over, trade show delegates that different?

It is possible density-dependent checks on population growth through intraspecific competition will not only reduce the number exhibitors to CES, but that as in most populations when intraspecific competition manifests, the population never recovers to its original size. Anyone remember Comdex? Anyone miss it?

So CES should head off this catastrophe and divide and conquer. Multiple smaller CES’s would be much more profitable for CEA, Las Vegas, and the exhibitors. The taxi drivers and restaurant help would like it too.

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  • CES 2012: bigger, and crowded as hell
  • Graphically Speaking: display revolutions, lots of ‘em including Lucid’s Virtu technology and Gamma Dynamics’ new ePaper
  • News Watch: Apple’s textbook strategy, AMD teams with U of IL, Instant Effects in the classroom, and new rendering technology from CoreCG
  • Financial: AMD, Intel, Microsoft have decent quarters. Apple’s is much better
  • Columns: Our man in Brazil notices that rich people have iPads. Mr. Marken goes to CES, what he saw
  • Jon says the action at the tech industry’s bazaar promises better times ahead.

    • Worldwide PC Gaming hardware Market Report Series

    Download Full reports (Purchase required)

    Download Table of Contents & Exec Summarys

    These reports provide the hardware TAM for Enthusiast, Performance, and Mainstream Gaming PCs, AIBs, and peripherals for major international regions and specific countries within these regions. This report includes data for 37 countries in seven regions delivered in Excel spreadsheets. The reports are a combination of top down and bottom up analysis. The Top-down portion of the report analyzes hardware based on AIB shipments and subsequent PC shipments from 2010 to 2014. It is also based on various macro financial analysis and growth rates. The Bottom-up portion is based on the strength of PC gaming in individual countries worldwide and also the type of gaming popular in various cultures. The Top-down portion is based on worldwide shipments of GPU's as well as some economic data. The Appendix offers a detailed step by step methodology and an architecture discussion.

    For purchasers of the full set there is an additional summary report, and an extensive glossary of terms.

    This report is delivered in a set of spreadsheets and is supported by a written overview (illustrated in the TOC and Exec summary samples available above).

    Mobile Devices and their Semiconductors

    Download a copy of the TOC and Executive Summary HERE.

    The market for these devices has exploded creating a market for over two billion processors. According to the report:

    • Over three quarters of a billion smartphones will ship in 2016
    • Feature and other phones will hit 869 million units in 2016
    • Almost 300 million tablets will ship in 2016
    • E-book readers shipments could reach 100 million a year by 2016
    • Handheld game consoles will hit 91 million by 2016

    The processors powering these devices will be truly amazing, consuming remarkably little power, built in the latest nanometer technology, and delivering unbelievable performance and functionality. And although all of the devices will share some functionality and capabilities, no single device will kill any of the others ... at least immediately. Each device will have a different form, primary function, and price. All will be connected all the time, and most will have 3D displays and cameras.

    Smartphones and tablets will account for over 50% of the market

    More than16 processor companies and 4 IP suppliers, will be chasing this market. Compared to the four or five processor companies chasing the PC market that makes the mobile processor market over populated by four-to-one-is a consolidation coming? Are there too many suppliers chasing the same customers?

    The report includes a historical perspective that illustrates the sharp growth devices have enjoyed recently. For example, he first standalone tablet was the GRiDPad in 1989. In 2001 Microsoft reinvented the concept calling it a "pen Computer". And then in 2010 Apple brought the category to life with the iPad. The first smartphone was the IBM Simon in 1992, then Nokia entered the market 1996 and since then, the segment has taken off like a rocket.

    The concept for the e-book came from Michael Heart in 1971, and the first battery powered standalone unit was the Rocket eBook in 1998, but it was the Kindle that lit up the market in 2007.

    Other popular mobile devices like game consoles, navigation units, portable DVD players, and digital picture frames all use high resolution screens and sophisticated processors known as systems on a chip (SoC)

    Companies and organizations analyzed or mentioned in the report include: Action Semiconductors:, AMD, Apple, Broadcom, Core Logic:, Freescale, Fuzhou RockChip, HiSilicon:, Ingenic Semiconductors, Intel, Marvell, MediaTek:, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Renesas:, Samsung, ST-Ericsson, Telechips, Texas Instruments, WonderMedia, Zii Labs, IP Suppliers, ARM, DMP, Imagination Technologies, MIPS, and Vianvte.

    Reasons to Buy

    This report contains extensive data, forecasts, analysis and insight on the worldwide market for smartphones, tablets, e-book readers, and handheld game consoles. The report will provide you with a range of important benefits, such as:
    • For the first in one report clear, comparative explanations of all of the device markets: Tablets (ARM & X86, Android & Windows), Smartphones. E-book readers, and portable handheld game consoles.
    • You can then review 5-year market forecasts for all of these markets which will allow you compare shipment volumes on a year-by-year basis and without double-counting.
    • Benefit from 10 data-packed tables and 63 insightful charts-each with its own detailed table that can be pasted straight into your presentations and reports.
    • Read profiles and analysis of 21 mobile devices semiconductors suppliers plus four IP suppliers. Understand, the history, current status and future prospects for all of these players
    • Find out how and why stereo 3D will become one of the leading new features in phones, tablets, and game consoles.
    • Learn about the impact of GPU-compute on computational photography and other computation intense applications.
    • Understand which segments will suffer cannibalization, which won't, and why.
    • Read in-depth analysis of the two key device which are currently driving the device market-20 pages of in-depth analysis of the Tablet market and 20 more on smartphones

    Q3 graphics shipments up 16.7% over last quarter18.4% over last year

    Shipments during the third quarter of 2011 did (finally) behave according to past years with regard to seasonality, and was higher on a year-to-year comparison for the quarter. 2011 is still an unusual year for the PC and graphics suppliers as businesses take their own path to recovery.

    The third quarter of the year is usually the growth quarter and was this year which is a positive sign looking forward. The growth in Q3 comes as a welcome change,—is it inventory building for the holiday season.

    The quarter in general

    • This quarter, Intel celebrated its seventh quarter of embedded processor graphics CPU (EPG, a multi-chip design that combined a graphics processor and CPU in the same package) shipments, and had a very strong double digit growth in desktops and notebooks.
    • AMD lost in overall market share Intel gained more compared to last quarter and Nvidia declined due to its exiting from the integrated segments.
    • Year to year this quarter Intel market share increased (9.5%), AMD broke even, and Nvidia slipped -23% in the overall market partially due to the company withdrawing from the integrated segments. However, Nvidia gained 10.9% in desktop discrete.
    • The quarter’s change in total shipments from last quarter increased 16.7%, above the ten-year average of 13.9%.
    • AMD’s HPU quarter-to-quarter growth has been extraordinary at an average of 58.4% for desktop and notebook, and Intel’s EPG growth was significant at an average of 23.6%. This is a clear showing of the industry’s affirmation of the value of CPUs with embedded graphics and is in line with our forecasts. The major, and logical, impact is on older IGPs, and some on low-end low-cost add-in boards (AIBS).
    • Almost 92 million PCs shipped worldwide this quarter, an increase of 8.8% compared to last quarter (based on an average of reports from Dataquest, IDC, and HSI).

    At least one and often two GPUs are present in every PC shipped. It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in the chipset, or a GPU embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 115% in 2001 to almost 160% GPUs per PC.

    Discrete graphics processing unit (GPUs) chips and other chips with graphics (integrated graphics processor chipsets—IGPs, x86 CPU heterogeneous processor units— HPUs, andx86 CPU embedded processor units—EPGs) are a leading indicator for the PC market.

    Market shares shifted for the big three, and put pressure on the smaller three, and most showed a decrease in market share as indicated in Table 1

    Intel continues to be the overall market share leader, elevated by Core i5 EPG CPUs, Sandy Bridge, and Pineview Atom sales for Netbooks. AMD lost market share quarter-to quarter and Nvidia lost share.

    Nvidia is exiting the integrated graphics segments and shifting focus to discrete GPUs. The company showed significant discrete market share gain (30% qtr-qtr). Nvidia credits strong connect with new Intel Sandybridge notebooks. Ironically Nvidia enjoyed some serendipitous sales of IGPs in Q3 due to some older AMD CPU sales in Asia.

    AMD’s overall graphics market share dropped 0.3% from last quarter even though the company’s HPU class Fusion APU processors are selling very well.

    1 : Total Graphics Chip Market shares (Jon Peddie Research)
      Market share this quarter Market share  last Qtr Unit Change  Qtr-Qtr Share Change  Qtr-Qtr Market Share last yr
    AMD 23.0% 24.4% 9.9% -5.9% 23.0%
    Intel 60.4% 54.8% 28.5% 10.1% 55.1%
    Nvidia 16.1% 20.1% -6.2% -19.6% 21.0%
    Matrox 0.04% 0.0% 0.0% -14.3% 0.1%
    SiS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    VIA/S3 0.5% 0.6% -8.9% -22.0% 0.8%
    Total 100.0% 100.0% 16.7%   100.0%

    Year to year for the quarter the market increased. Shipments increased to 138.5 million units, up 21.5 million units from this quarter last year.

    Figure 1: The quarter’s change in total shipments from last quarter increased 16.7%, above the ten-year average of 13.9% (Jon Peddie Research)

    • Introduction
      • Q3’11
      • The quarter in general
      • Comments and observations about the quarter
        • Desktop
        • Notebook
      • Summary
    • The overall market forecast
      • Platform segments
        • Graphics by platform
        • PCs
        • PC vs. Graphics shipments
      • Component segments
    • Quarter’s results
      • Summary
    • Organization
      • Explanations, Notes, and Assumptions for Excel sheets
        • Region
        • Charts
      • Report
        • Charts in Summary Report page
        • Tables in Summary Report page
        • Assumptions used in the Report page
      • Vendor
        • IGP classification
      • HPU and EPG
        • Charts in Vendor page
        • Tables in Vendor page
      • Quarter’s Market Share.
        • Charts in Quarter Market Share page
        • Tables in Quarter Market Share page
      • Historical Market Share
        • Charts in Historical Market Share page
        • Tables in Historical Market Share page
      • Quarter Master
      • Year Master
      • Miscellaneous

     

    Table of Figures

    • Figure 1: Graphics chip shipments since introduction of PC
    • Figure 2: Growth rates quarter-to-quarter over time
    • Figure 3: Market share for total GPUs for the quarter
    • Figure 4: Market share in desktop graphics chips over time
    • Figure 5: Desktop discrete GPU market shares over time
    • Figure 6: Desktop integrated GPU market shares over time
    • Figure 7: Notebook vs. desktop market share over time
    • Figure 8: Market share in notebook graphics chips over time
    • Figure 9: Notebook discrete market share
    • Figure 10: Notebook integrated graphics market share
    • Figure 11: The graphics chip market (Units) and percentage of growth
    • Figure 12: Desktop and notebook Graphics chips growth
    • Figure 13: Estimation of Notebook PC shipments to desktop PC shipments over time
    • Figure 14: Graphics chip and PC shipments
    • Figure 15: Relative shipments of the major segments

     

    Table of Tables

    • Table 1: Total Graphics Chip Market shares
    • Table 2: Comparisons of relative quarters

    Market Dynamics Created by the Embedded Graphics Processors - Impact on low end GPUs

    A true inflection point occurred in the PC and related industries in 2011 with the full scale production of scalar X86CPUs with integrated powerful multi-core, SIMD graphics processing elements. In so doing the ubiquitous and stalwart IGP – integrated graphics processor, is fading out of existence.
    For several reasons, many people believed (and some hoped) the CPU and the GPU would never be integrated:
    • GPUs are characterized by a high level of complexity, with power and cooling demands, and have dramatically different memory management needs.
    • GPU design cycles are faster than those of the CPU.
    • GPU has grown in complexity compared to the CPU exceeding the transistor count, and matching or exceeding the die size of the CPU.
    • The x86 has steadily increased in complexity, power consumption, and become multi-core.

    With four times the number transistors possible in the same space as the previous manufacturing node or feature space Moore’s law seems unstoppable, and with the move to 32nm and now 28nm the possibilities for integration of such complex and alien functionality is not only possible and feasible, but a reality.

    EPGs and HPUs will take over the market in less than two years

    The impact on discrete GPUs due to the combination of devices being offered with integrated graphics (IGPs, EPGs, and HPUs) will impact the historical rise of discrete GPU sales and threatens to put the category in decline, or at least so some believe, it’s not that simple, nothing in the PC industry is.

    The EPG/HPU will truly revolutionize the PC and associated industries. The amount of computation capability available in the size, weight, power consumption of systems equipped with EPG/HPUs coupled with the attractive prices they will carry will upset the market dynamics like never before, and maybe not since the introduction of the PC.

    The report includes a historical perspective that illustrates the sharp growth embedded processors devices have enjoyed recently, and an architectural review in the appendix.

    Companies and organizations analyzed or mentioned in the report include: AMD, Intel, Lucid Logic, Matrox, Nvidia, and VIA.

    Reasons to Buy

    This report contains extensive data, forecasts, analysis and insight on the worldwide market for Integrated Graphics, Embedded Processor Graphics, and Heterogeneous Processors. The report will provide you with a range of important benefits, such as:
    For the first in one report clear, comparative explanations of all of the device markets: Tablets (ARM & X86, Android & Windows), Smartphones. E-book readers, and portable handheld game consoles.

    You can then review 5-year market forecasts for all of these markets which will allow you compare shipment volumes on a year-by-year basis and without double-counting.

    Benefit from data-packed tables and 34 insightful charts-each with its own detailed table that can be pasted straight into your presentations and reports.

    Learn about the impact on GPUs from the EPGs and HPUs

    Understand which segments will suffer cannibalization, which won't, and why.

    See a forecast of market shares and the area of contention between them.

     

    Table of Contents

    • Executive Summary
    • Introduction
      • Two routes: EPG and HPU
        • GPUs do more than graphics
        • HPUs will be the norm
    • Evolve or die
      • History repeats – did we learn anything?
      • HPUs and EPGs enter the mainstream
        • Memory the key
      • First casualty UMA IGPs
        • Laptop discrete graphics little impact
        • Desktop discrete graphics low end at risk
      • Second casualty – Entry level (Value, Essential) discrete GPUs
      • Slightly wounded – Midrange discrete GPUs
        • AMD potentially gains market share
        • Intel
        • Nvidia
        • Others
      • GPU suppliers
      • Historical market share changes
      • Graphics performance
        • New media intensive applications
      • Tension at the inflection point
      • Total PC graphics market shares
        • Desktop
        • Notebook
      • Integrated/embedded devices by segment
        • IGPs rapidly decline.
        • Embedded Processor graphics move in
        • HPU graphics disrupt the market
      • Summary and conclusion
    • Appendix
      • GPU architectures
      • PC architectures
        • Next generation architectures
        • Newest architectures
      • Block diagrams
      • History of integrated graphics
        • The IGC
        • SMA
        • Embedded memory
        • UMA
        • The IGP
      • Bifurcated market
      • Market consolidation
    • SAM, TAM and PAM

    Table of Figures

    • Figure 1: EPGs and HPUs will take over the market in less than two years
    • Figure 2: The rise and fall of graphics chip suppliers due to technology evolution
    • Figure 3: The disappearing market for IGPs
    • Figure 4: Discrete mobile GPUs will be impacted by EPGs and HPUs
    • Figure 5: Discrete desktop GPUs decline due to HPUs is blunted by GPU-compute uptake
    • Figure 6: Low-end discrete GPUs sales will be impacted by HPUs
    • Figure 7: History of total PC graphics market share
    • Figure 8: AMD’s Desktop roadmap (Source AMD)
    • Figure 9: AMD’s Notebook roadmap (Source AMD)
    • Figure 10: Intel’s roadmap (Source Intel)
    • Figure 11: Market share in the PC graphics market
    • Figure 12: Market shares in the desktop graphics market
    • Figure i3: Market shares in the notebook graphics market
    • Figure 14: Total PC IGP sales forecast
    • Figure i5: Desktop IGP sales forecast
    • Figure 16: Notebook IGP sales forecast
    • Figure 17: Total PC Processor Graphics sales forecast
    • Figure 18: Desktop EPG sales forecast
    • Figure 19: Notebook EPG sales forecast
    • Figure 20: Total PC HPU sales forecast
    • Figure 21: Desktop HPU sales forecast
    • Figure 22: Notebook HPU sale forecast
    • Figure 23: Block diagram of ATI/AMD’s RV870 GPU (Source AMD)
    • Figure 24: Block diagram of Nvidia’s Fermi GPU (Source Nvidia)
    • Figure 25: Basic contemporary Intel PC architecture
    • Figure 26: Basic contemporary AMD PC architecture
    • Figure 27: Intel PC architecture for high-end machines
    • Figure 28: Hybrid PC architecture
    • Figure 29: Intel Core i5 Processor graphics
    • Figure 30: Intel’s future HPU Sandy Bridge (Source Intel)
    • Figure 31: AMD’s HPU Ontario – the SIMD Engine is the GPU
    • Figure 32: Comparison of AMD’s Llano and Intel’s Sandy Bridge
    • Figure 33: The evolution of function integration into the CPU
    • Figure 34: Conceptualization of PAM/TAM/SAM and SOM (Courtesy RAK Associates)

    Table of Tables

    Table 1: History of graphics in the PC for the past 30 years

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    Digital Content Creation Software Market: all-new 2007 edition

    This report provides an overview of the digital content creation (DCC) software market for applications running on PC based computer platforms or UNIX workstations. Digital content creation software enables the creation or modification of digital content, such as animation, graphics, images or video, as part of the production process before presentation in its final medium.

    Digital content is visual material stored in a binary format represented by one of the following data classifications:

    • Time-based material stored as pixels per time interval or samples per time interval, such as animation, film, or video stored as frames per second (fps).

    • Raster-based material stored as fixed pixels, such as images, pictures and photographs, in a variety of formats including bitmap, jpeg or targa files.

    • Rendered-based material stored as a mathematical equation or numerical dataset, such as 2D and 3D designs, models and objects or spatial audio, in the form of vectors or a scene graph.

    This report covers DCC software in the following segments (in alphabetical order):

    • 3D Modeling and Animation

    • Digital Video Editing & Compositing

    • DVD Authoring

    • Dynamic/Interactive Content Authoring

    • Graphics and Image Editing

    The PC based computer platforms include: Workstation, Performance, Mainstream, and Value PC. For a detailed definition of these segments, please refer to Jon Peddie's Market Watch for PC-based graphics shipments and market activity.

    Potential end users for DCC software applications fall into two primary groups:

    Professional—The professional group includes end users or facilities that derive primary income directly from using a DCC software application, such as a professional animator, post-production facility or audio recording studio. Also included here are the semi-professionals. These individual end users or facilities also derive income as a result of their use of a DCC software application or are part of a support organization, such as a wedding videographer who works on weekends or a video communication services group in a large corporation.

    Consumer—Two classes of users exist in the consumer group. The first type of customer is the prosumer who uses a combination of professional grade and entry level tools, but does not derive any significant income from using a DCC software application, such as a group of local musicians, video enthusiast or public cable access programming. The second customer is the true consumer or home user. These individuals use less expensive entry-level DCC applications for personal enjoyment, such as creating home video of their child's sporting event or retouching family photos taken with a digital camera. By definition, the true consumer or home user derives no income from the DCC applications. Applications for consumers typical cost less than $100 at the point of purchase and anything higher is generally considered too expensive.

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    2012 CAD Report

    Jon Peddie Research is pleased to inform you about our latest release, the 2012 market study on the CAD industry.
    The study is 80 pages, with 50 figures and tablets that describe the CAD market and industry dynamics. The report sells for US$ 5,000 with a 10% discount subscribers to JPR’s bi-weekly industry report, Tech Watch.
    Abstract:
    The CAD market, one of the largest and most established software markets is dynamic and growing in new directions. There are several important trends affecting the growth of the market including:

    • Worldwide all markets slowed down during the economic recession of 2008-2009 but the engines are starting up again. Asia and India barely slowed and new markets are joining them including Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
    • In the near term JPR sees slowed growth in several markets as economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe bedevil the recovery. The hardest hit market will be AEC Architecture, Engineering, and Construction).
    • New platforms and new distribution models will lead the market. CAD has long been a high-value product and CAD companies have jealously protected their high margins. The new opportunities opened up by cloud computing, apps, and tablets give CAD companies an opening to “have it all,” high volume, low cost consumer-ish apps along with new ways to offer boutique services to valued subscription customers.

    Leaner, more efficient companies are ready to rebuild after the recession years.  The companies are looking at ways to retool their businesses for more efficiency.

    The CAD report includes market share data among the major CAD vendors, it provides geographic data, and takes a closer look at the larger sub-segments: MCAD, AEC, Process & Power, and GIS. Also included in the report are market forecasts to 2016 and a discussion of the trends that have influenced our forecast. As a bonus, companies that buy the CAD report will have access to online company profiles.

    Jon Peddie Research is pleased to inform you about our latest release, the 2012 market study on the CAD industry.
    The study is 80 pages, with 50 figures and tablets that describe the CAD market and industry dynamics. The report sells for US$ 5,000 with a 10% discount subscribers to JPR’s bi-weekly industry report, Tech Watch.
    Abstract:
    The CAD market, one of the largest and most established software markets is dynamic and growing in new directions. There are several important trends affecting the growth of the market including:

    • Worldwide all markets slowed down during the economic recession of 2008-2009 but the engines are starting up again. Asia and India barely slowed and new markets are joining them including Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
    • In the near term JPR sees slowed growth in several markets as economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe bedevil the recovery. The hardest hit market will be AEC Architecture, Engineering, and Construction).
    • New platforms and new distribution models will lead the market. CAD has long been a high-value product and CAD companies have jealously protected their high margins. The new opportunities opened up by cloud computing, apps, and tablets give CAD companies an opening to “have it all,” high volume, low cost consumer-ish apps along with new ways to offer boutique services to valued subscription customers.

    Leaner, more efficient companies are ready to rebuild after the recession years.  The companies are looking at ways to retool their businesses for more efficiency.

    The CAD report includes market share data among the major CAD vendors, it provides geographic data, and takes a closer look at the larger sub-segments: MCAD, AEC, Process & Power, and GIS. Also included in the report are market forecasts to 2016 and a discussion of the trends that have influenced our forecast. As a bonus, companies that buy the CAD report will have access to online company profiles.

    Table of Contents

    • Introduction
        • Executive Summary
        • A summary of findings
      • CAD Market Overview
      • Trends 2011
        • It’s the economy
        • New tools
        • Multi-CAD and low-cost CAD
        • New opportunities, even in established markets
        • The Cloud and Apps
        • Real World Capture
      • CAD Market Overview
        • Getting focus
      • Through the recession, the rich got richer.
    • CAD companies, their third party partners, and distribution
        • The third party satellites
      • The importance of third party partners
        • The third party benefits
        • CAD expands
      • Market Share Leaders
      • 3D: Shifts in emphasis
      • Low cost and free 2D gains ground in 2010
        • A condensed list of ODA members
      • The Architectural market; a move to new models
        • BIM leaders see improved fortunes hope for a brighter future
        • The architectural landscape.
        • The metrology revolution
        • The users: 2D, 3D, and both
        • Geographies
    • Manufacturing CAD
      • The U.S. educational crisis in science and engineering
        • AEC: Architecture, Engineering, and Construction
      • Process and Power
        • Consolidation in Process & Power
    • GIS
        • Is Google GIS?
      • Summary
    • The Mac market
        • Mac3D
      • Autodesk on the Mac, a growing ecosphere
        • Sketching and drawing
        • Tablet programs for CAD
        • Summary
        • Forecasts
        • Economic indicators.
      • Forecast Conclusion

    Table of Figures

    • Figure 1: The CAD leaders: Autodesk, Dassault Systèmes, PTC, and Siemens PLM have a disproportionate percentage of market share compared to their smaller competitors.
    • Figure 2: The total CAD market is estimated to be $7 billion in 2011 The long recession has hit the smaller players and there is more shake out on the way
    • Figure 4: A breakdown of the major segments considered in this report. In this chart the segments are apportioned according to revenue. The MCAD segments including Automotive, Aerospace, Fabrication and Assembly (F&A), and Consumer Goods, represent the highest share of the market revenue.
    • Figure 4: Market share for the top CAD vendors by revenue. The total CAD market reached $6 billion in 2010 and will reach $7 billion in 2011
    • Figure 5: 3D has grown in the CAD market . In 2010 CAD revenues are split about 60:40 between 2D and 3D and in fact, we even seen new entrants on the scene with a strong focus on 2D. Figure 6: The 3D CAD market recovered faster from the recession which affected the CAD industry most dramatically in 2008-2009.
    • Figure 7: The 2D market for CAD is heavily skewed toward Autodesk and the larger vendors. The market for 2D CAD programs in 2010 was $2 billion. The smaller competitors including Ashlar-Vellum, Auto-des-Sys, DataCAD, Graebert, IMSI, Versacad, etc. There are new companies on the scene including CorelCAD, DraftSight, and new products from IMSI. In addition, there are 2D users who work within organizations using 2D and 3D.
    • Figure 8: As low cost and free CAD packages arrive, the gulf between 2D CAD and 3D CAD widens in terms of revenue. Customers are willing to spend more for 3D CAD products in order to develop new processes.
    • Figure 9: A Revit structural model of a parking garage in Miami. Courtesy of Buro Happold
    • Figure 10: An exterior view of the Center for Creativity BIM model created in Bentley Architecture. (Source: Bentley, Cadalyst Magazine)
    • Figure 11: The BIM market leaders combine data management with CAD data. JPR puts the BIM market at $1 billion in 2010-2011
    • Figure 12: Excel Engineering demonstrates scanned imagery combined with 3D model in Revit (Source: Excel Engineering)
    • Figure 13: A comparison of salaries shows CAD drafters to be relatively low paid compared to Professional Engineers and Architects
    • Figure 14: A look at the number of respondents to polls suggests that for many people, the job of CAD drafter is a stepping stone. The majority of respondents have not been in the job for a long time. They may be ready to move up in their profession or to move on to another type of work.
    • Figure 15: The number of CAD licenses dropped off in 2009 as companies downsized and failed to renew licenses or buy new CAD seats. There was good recovery in 2010 but 2011 has seen a slowdown again in response to economic trends. This chart includes estimates for the total CAD installed base as well as new buyers and upgrades for the year. The total number of people using CAD in a year includes the installed base plus the new buyers.
    • Figure 16: Strong representation by European CAD companies has changed the picture of worldwide CAD revenues
    • Figure 17: To get a larger view of the world market for CAD we broke out the regions by country using our own segmentation, world economic data, as well as company information where available.
    • Figure 18: The CAD market in Asia and emerging markets is growing faster than the western markets. Growth in the Americas will be driven by Latin America, especially Brazil but also the other Latin American countries including Chile, Peru, and Columbia. This shift is happening rapidly.
    • Figure 19: The market share among leading mechanical CAD providers. The manufacturing market is the largest segment of CAD. MCAD market reached $3 billion. The market is lopsided with a few strong leaders and numerous smaller competitors and vendors of add-on products
    • Figure 20: The manufacturing industry is dominated by large, enterprises. However, it is supported by an ecosystem of contractors and small companies building products or every description
    • Figure 20: Science and engineering degrees have picked up after hitting a trough in 2003-2004. U.S. students are returning to the sciences and engineering and foreign students studying in are also quietly returning to U.S. universities. Meanwhile, China’s determined push into science and engineering continues and strengthens. (Source: US National Science Foundation)
    • Figure 21: The USF uses journal articles as an indication of competitiveness and actual output
    • Figure 22: The AEC industry is a superset of disciplines in CAD. Autodesk has a long history in the AEC industry and leads the market but there are many companies with very strong customer bases. Companies like Nemetschek and Bentley have helped lead the AEC market to BIM. In addition there are several influential small companies, which do well In the AEC market with more modest revenues. In the past three years we have seen the use of SketchUp climb in the market, however, it is used in conjunction with other CAD products. There are also a lot of low cost and free CAD products in use in the architectural market.
    • Figure 23: The major markets of AEC
    • Figure 24: The process and power industry is complex combining data management with specialized CAD functions such as piping, collision detection, and architecture.
    • Figure 25: In the U.S., the sources of power are distributed. (Source: The US Energy Information Administration)
    • Figure 26: The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) expects energy demands to rise dramatically in India and China. The other emerging economies are catching up while the OECD partners (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) levels off
    • Figure 27: According to Daratech’s survey, software tools are difficult to learn and to become proficient using. (Source Daratech 2D vsD Study)
    • Figure 28: The GIS market is dominated by ESRI but other players have carved out healthy subsets within the broad range of GIS related markets. (Source: JPR with supplementary data
    • Figure 29: C3 generates maps from aerial photography. (Source: C3)
    • Figure 30: The market share for CAD programs on the Mac
    • Figure 31: Autodesk is building a portfolio of apps and tools for tablets including the 123D line which spans PCs, tablets, and Macs. The company is eager to get the tools out there to see what their customers will do and what they want
    • Figure 32: CAD follows worldwide economic trends. The return to growth in the CAD software market is likely to be slow in through 2013 as problems in the US and European economies hold back growth. At least that’s the way it looks near the end of 2011. Growth will come from China and India, and emerging markets. We believe growth will pick up after 2012
    • Figure 33: The picture varies for the CAD industries. The AEC market is up slightly due to international projects and a bit of a natural rebound as a result of necessary building and maintenance. Thanks to emerging markets and hard work on the part of manufacturing companies to recover efficiencies, the manufacturing market is return to growth relatively quickly. Process & Power, and Civil Engineering represent large, long-term projects and are less volatile. The GIS market is on the upswing and both GIS and Civil will be positively affected by the need for infrastructure improvements in the west and new projects in the east and emerging economies.
    • Figure 34: For some, the number of housing starts in the U.S. is an indicator of the health of the economy. Vendors in the architectural communities will hasten to add that housing is a small part of the overall picture and not reflective of the CAD industry. As a result of the problems in the U.S. housing market, there has been plenty of inventory on the market and little need for new houses. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, McGraw Hill)
    • Figure 35: Commercial building has been more stable for US businesses. One reason for this is that the US companies in this segment have projects all over the world and they are finding work in Asia and regions of growth while Europe and the US wait for better times.
    • Figure 36: Off a cliff. Construction in Europe has fallen off even more sharply than it has in the U.S. Large U.S. companies have been bolstered by International projects. (Source: Eurostat)
    • Figure 38: ENR surveys the leading companies in the construction industry including Designers, Contractors, and Sub-contractors. This chart tracks the answers from all groups. It was published in September, 2011. They were asked about their confidence about business in the coming months and years. Most do not see improvement coming for about a year. At the end of
    • Figure 37: Another view from EuroStat: they are seeing all areas of buildings drop off in 2010
    • Figure 39: the shape of recovery. The AEC market is taking a while to work its way back. Growth is slow, but it is steady.
    • Figure 40: Data from the OICA for 2010 shows almost universal growth for automobile manufacturing worldwide. Egypt is a notable exception for obvious reasons.
    • Figure 39: Data from EuroStat shows manufacturing to be on the upswing and in fact, it did not turn down as sharply in Europe as it did in the U.S
    • Figure 41: The MCAD market has shown resiliency thanks to world markets and we expect the market to grow through 2013

    Table of Tables

    • Table 1: The major CAD companies have staked out specific areas of expertise
    • Table 2: A rough comparison of the vertical organization of the major CAD companies reveals their areas of emphasis. Note: PTC is in the process of re-architecting its product line into “apps” but we expect the product groups to be similar
    • Table 3: GIS covers a broad range of human activity. What they all have in common is the need to understand and communicate geographical data combined with related information
    • Table 4: Apple does not call its professional class machines workstations but they are the match to Windows based workstations on the market. (Source: compiled by JPR, Apple data)
    • Table 5: CAD programs for the Mac. There is a wide range of products available
    • Table 6: Autodesk has been steadily bringing products to the Mac (Source: Autodesk)
    • Table 7: A list of the current CAD-related software for tablets. It’s already very clear that this is the only year it will be practical to create a list of apps for CAD because the list will be too long in another 12 months time. (Source: JPR)

    Graphics Add-in Board Shipments Decline 15.2% from Last Quarter

    Overall shipments of graphics AIBs for the quarter came in below the last quarter at 16.1 million units compared to 19.01 million for Q1’11.

    The evolution of the graphics market has resulted in two major super-categories of graphics AIBs: those which carry Nvidia graphics chips and those which carry AMD chips. Nvidia GPU-based boards declined slightly by 0.1% from Q1, while AMD-based boards increased 0.1% for the same period. Sales of AIB products have been directly impacted by the rise of integrated CPUs from Intel and AMD, which have increasingly powerful graphics.

    Shipments during the second quarter of 2011 behaved according to past years with regard to seasonality but were lower on a year-to-year comparison for the quarter. Q2’11 was down from the previous quarter by 15.2%, and the ten year average for the quarter is -11.2%.

    Our forecast for the coming years has been modified since the last report, and is less aggressive on add-in boards (AIBs) due to the prolonged worldwide recession and the impact of embedded graphics on the low end.

    The quarter in general

    In terms of market share, market leader Nvidia lost share by 0.1% from Q1, 2011, while AMD’s market share increased 0.1% for the same period. On a year-to-year basis AMD lost market share by 0.8% while Nvidia gained 1.1% of market share. Obviously, these are not huge moves in the market and Nvidia still leads in unit shipments.

    Table 1: Market shares over time
    Market Share This Quarter Market Share Last Quarter Market Share Market Share Change Qtr-Qtr This quarter Last Year Market Share Change Yr-Yr
    AMD 40.6% 40.5% 0.1% 41.4% -0.8%
    Nvidia 59.0% 59.1% -0.1% 57.9% 1.1%
    Others 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% -0.3%

    Over 16 million AIBs shipped in Q2 2011. Nvidia was the leader in unit shipments for the quarter, elevated by double attach and GPU-compute/CUDA sales.

    The AIB market is fueled at the high-end by the enthusiast gamer, small in volume (~3m a year) but high in dollars (average spend for an AIB ~$300). The AIB shipment volume comes from the Performance and Mainstream segments. GPU-compute is adding to sales on the high end. The Workstation Market is smaller in unit sales than the enthusiast segment but characterized by even higher average selling prices (ASPs) (average spend for an AIB ~$415).

    For the year, the AIB market is expected to hit $13.8 billion, down 33% from 2010 due to a pull back by consumers and a gradual decline in ASP.

    The JPR AIB report covers seven regions and reports on the value of AIB sales and units in those regions.

    • Contents
      • Definitions & Methodology
        • Definitions
        • Methodology
        • Secondary research for this report
      • Introduction
      • Q2’11
      • The quarter in general
      • Comments and observations about the quarter
      • AIB Segments CHANGE
        • Enthusiast segment
        • Performance segment
        • Mainstream segment
        • Watershed
        • Technical details of AIBs
      • AIB developments in the quarter
        • AMD
        • Matrox
        • Nvidia
        • S3 Graphics
    • Market size
      • Units
        • Forecast
      • Geographical Distribution
      • Market share
      • Can integrated graphics take over discrete AIBs?
      • Market Value
        • Market value for the quarter
        • Price trends by segment
        • Market value and forecast by segments
        • Market value and forecast by region
      • Memory Size
      • GPUs, AIBs and PCs
      • Add In Boards
        • Embedded systems
        • Sales channel
        • Multi AIBs
      • Benchmarks
        • Beware of relying too heavily on a handful of hardware metrics
        • The market is usually the best judge
        • Benchmark data
    • Architectural and Construction Concepts of AIBs
      • HPU and EPG
      • GPU-Compute
    • Suppliers
      • GPU suppliers
      • AIB products
      • AIB Suppliers

    Table of Figures

    • Figure 1: Graphics chip shipments since introduction of PC
    • Figure 2: Comparison of quarter-to-quarter growth and AIB unit shipments
    • Figure 3: Growth rates quarter-to-quarter over time
    • Figure 4: Market share for AIBs for the quarter
    • Figure 5: AMD’s AIB roadmap (Source AMD)
    • Figure 6: Matrox’s Thnderbolt multi monitor accessory
    • Figure 7: Nvidia’s GeForce GT 520
    • Figure 8: S3 Chrome AIB driving four signage displays
    • Figure 9: Shipments of graphics AIBs by segment this quarter
    • Figure 10: Graphics AIB distribution triangle
    • Figure 11: History and forecast of AIB shipments
    • Figure 12: Geographic distribution of shipments of AIBs
    • Figure 13: Market share of the primary AIB GPU suppliers
    • Figure 14: Market value by AIB segment
    • Figure 15: ASP changes over time for AIB segments
    • Figure 16: Market value of segments over time
    • Figure 17: Market value of regions over time
    • Figure 18: Memory load of AIBs over time
    • Figure 19: Basic categorization of PC platforms and their graphics subsystems
    • Figure 20: Sales channels for AIBs
    • Figure 21: Pmark test results for AMD and Nvidia this quarter
    • Figure 22: Game results for AIBs tested
    • Figure 23: Pmark test results for AMD AIBs
    • Figure 24: AMD’s AIBs for Q2
    • Figure 25: Game results for AMD AIBs
    • Figure 26: Comparison of Nvidia AIBs in SLI mode
    • Figure 27: Running games on an extreme high resolution display with dual AIBs
    • Figure 28: Basic PC architecture for graphics
    • Figure 29: The newer PC architecture for graphics
    • Figure 30: Embedded graphics market impact on IGPs and AIBs

    Table of Tables

    • Table 1: AIB sub-segments
    • Table 2: Workstation AIB sub-segments
    • Table 3: AIB products based on AMD and Nvidia GPUs
    • Table 4: AIB suppliers

    3D Modeling and Animation Market Study

    If the 3D market is on the verge of major breakthroughs, and we believe it is – it must first suffer the same disappointments and cutbacks experienced by businesses during these hard times. There are very encouraging signs that new markets are opening up for 3D and here are larger opportunities in more traditional markets, the industry is going through a period of contraction and consolidation. As difficult as it is for all participants, this is often a prelude to growth and we believe that is true now.

    The 3D Modeling and Animation market reached $237 million in 2008. Reflecting a difficult economy, the market will decline in 2009 to $221– and we expect it to remain essentially flat in 2010 as well.

    However there is promise for new growth beginning in 2011 as new markets evolve, 3D on the web begins a new era, and it is hoped, digital film distribution new stereo 3D movies, and the recovery of world markets will increase demand for new movies. The game market is uncertain, but new platforms are increasing the demand for games in general and we believe 3D games will be an important part of that trend. Finally, postponed upgrades, and pent-up demand for expansion and new features will begin to have an effect in the second half of 2010.

    A little more about the game industry: the game industry is the largest consumer for 3D modeling and animation software today. The trend will continue – however even the game industry is under siege as wallets clamp shut due to a falling economy. At the first half of 2009, the game companies are cautious and they’re reining in investment.

    Figure 1: DCC market value over time. The market is going through a slow down as the economy takes its toll on advertising and credit for filmmaking

    3D Modeling and Animation Market study

    • 3D Modeling and Animation
      • Introduction
        • Methodology
    • Executive Summary
      • Trends
        • Positive
        • Negative
    • The market
      • Geographic Distribution
      • Segments
        • Film and TV
        • Stereoscopic 3D movies and TV
        • The independents challenge Hollywood
        • Game Development
        • 3D Worlds
          • Worlds summary
        • Visualization and Commercial Art
          • Rendering goes mainstream – an overview
            • Anark
            • ARTVPS
            • BunkSpeed
            • Caustic Graphics
            • Luxology
            • Rendering from Nvidia
            • RayScale
            • Mental Images
            • studio|gpu
            • RTT
        • Rendering summary
        • Physics
      • Segments summary
    • Future indicators
      • Free 3D
        • Blender grows
        • Daz 3D
        • Luxology’s unlimited demo model
        • Microsoft sets Caligari free … and dumps it
      • Vendors try to streamline 3D modeling process with easy tools
        • Animeeple
        • Evolver
        • Game Salad
        • Wild Pockets
        • 3DVIA Virtools
        • The consumer opportunity
      • Subscription pricing draws flak
      • The Mac grows in importance
      • Exchange formats
      • Adobe extends 3D capabilities
        • Strata 3D
        • Daz releases 3D bridge for Photoshop
        • Maxon takes advantage of Adobe’s support for 3D
        • Digital Anarchy Announces 3D Object Creation Software for Adobe Photoshop
      • Mobile computing/lightweight gaming
      • Summary to trends
    • Users
      • Professional
      • Casual
    • Forecast
      • Summary
    • Appendix
      • The products
    • What’s new
      • Autodesk acquires Softimage and RealViz
      • 3DS Max gets major overhaul
      • Virtools
    • Direct 3D modeling -- sculpting

    Table of Figures

    • Figure 1: DCC market value over time. The market is going through a slow down as the economy takes its toll on advertising and credit for filmmaking.
    • Figure 2: The 3D Modeling and Animation market reached $237, an increase of 8% over 2007 when the industry reached $219 million. The market is expected to decline in 2009 as companies pull in spending on advertising and marketing.
    • Figure 3: Film/TV and Game Development are giving back the gains they made in 2008. TV has been the hardest hit due to a reduction in advertising spending. Although the game industry has been relatively resilient in terms of sales, the inability of game developers to produce games efficiently has negatively impacted the industry and layoffs ripped through the game development centers in 2009. Likewise, the CAD markets have been severely impacted causing interest in visualizations to go down as well.
    • Figure 4: The Film/TV segments are expected to see growth in 2010 as emerging markets recover and the advertising industry responds to growth in the U.S. market. Game development will grow but 3D game development could see slower growth as the industry grapples with efficiency issues.
    • Figure 5: The 3D Modeling and Animation market reached a high of $237million in 2008.
    • Figure 6: A look at market shares for 2009 – the major companies dominate the market and with Autodesk taking over 50% of the market. Yet, even as Autodesk solidifies its lead there is opportunity for smaller companies.
    • Figure 7: The Mac market for 3D Modeling and Animation reached $35.3 million in 2008. The Mac has become an important platform for 3D modeling and animation. The Mac is a preferred platform for advertising agencies and for some video applications including independent filmmaking and advertising. It is not used much in game development because the Mac has not yet become a major platform for game play.
    • Figure 8: Western Europe and North America have dominated the 3D modeling and animation market. Outsourcing content creation has been slow to catch on in many segments. We see that changing with India and Eastern Europe mounting determined campaigns to win new business.
    • Figure 9: The two largest segments for 3D modeling and animation are game development and film/TV. However, commercial art has grown considerably and represents an opportunity for less established companies.
    • Figure 10: The U.S. studios have seen their growth rates slow and revenues for the first quarter of 2009 have been down compared to last year. It’s interesting to note that the companies have diversified considerably with Time Warner, Walt Disney and Viacom all having divisions in movies, TV, games, interactive and other segments. However, their diversification has not insulated them from the fluctuations of world economies.
    • Figure 11: The pace of the conversion to digital screens is picking up worldwide. The conversion to digital will enable less expensive distribution, better quality screenings, and ease the addition of 3D capabilities. US studios are aggressively pursuing the transition.
    • Figure 12: The world is gaining on Hollywood. The MPAA refers to any film made outside its membership as “independent”
    • Figure 13: Theater owners are actually seeing an upturn in 2009 thanks to the release of several blockbusters including Monsters vs. Aliens, XMen Origins: Wolverine, Up, and Paul Blart; Mall Cop. In 2008, ticket sales were down to 2.6% 1.36 billion in the U.S.
    • Figure 14: on the basis of revenues, the game business looks like it’s booming but the game business is unique for the high expenses in development and marketing. The accompanying table helps draw a real picture. In addition, the spectacular jump in Activision’s revenues comes as a result of mergers combining Vivendi’s game business and Blizzard.
    • SFigure 15: Game developers are spread out all over the world. The above chart includes all form of game development including casual games as well as 3D games.
    • Figure 16: There are millions of people who visit online worlds regularly. If you add up the reported numbers, the total comes to over 41 million. We developed the chart by using reported population totals (which are invariably high), subscriptions where applicable, monthly totals, and page hits to get a more reasonable mid-range number. There is undoubtedly overlap between worlds but fans of worlds tend to settle down to a particular place.
    • Figure 17: The revenue picture for 3D worlds looks quite different from the population picture. There are plenty of visitors who are willing to hang out for free but stop short of subscribing or buying virtual goods. For this reason game sites tend to do better revenue wise than chat sites.
    • Figure 18: In our last CAD study published in 2007/2008 we estimated that there were a total of 1.5 billion CAD users worldwide. Although most of them are using 2D CAD, 3D CAD is growing at a much faster rate. Obviously, 3D CAD users are an interesting target market for 3D modeling and animation software makers
    • Figure 19: A block diagram of the REYES renderer developed by Loren Carpenter and Robert L. Cook at Lucasfilm’s Computer Graphics Group, which became Pixar. REYES was further developed to become Pixar’s Renderman. Renderman is a hybrid rendering architecture that includes techniques for global illumination and ray tracing effects. (Published on Wikipedia).
    • Figure 20: The Shaderlight renderer is currently available as a plug-in for 3ds max
    • Figure 21: Users opinions about the value of the features in rendering software (Source: CGenie)
    • Figure 22: There are a growing number of 3D modeling and animation products available for Mac users. We put the total of yearly users at around 47,000 people – a very respectable number for the market.
    • Figure 23: We estimate the yearly revenues for 3D Modeling and Animation on the Mac to be approximately $35.3 million. Autodesk holds a very strong position in this market and that position is expected to grow as more users adopt programs like Toxik and Mudbox.
    • Figure 24: Total user base for 2008
    • Figure 25: Autodesk has the largest market share, but there is a healthy gallery of companies offering products. We pro-rated companies that we acquired since this study was last published. We put the number of professional on a yearly basis.
    • Figure 26: Estimated market share for the primary suppliers of 3D software in the professional market in 2008
    • Figure 27: Unlike most other markets the number of casual users is much smaller than professionals. Many casual users opt for free or very low cost software. We estimate the number of casual 3D users to be 84,593 with Blender and Daz 3D having the largest market shares.
    • Figure 28: Estimated market share for the primary suppliers of 3D software in the casual market in 2008
    • Figure 29: Market forecast for 3D modeling and animation software (JPR)
    • Figure 30: Phantom Omni Haptic Device

    Table of Tables

    • Table 1: 3D movies on the calendar for 2009. In addition, there are plans to re-release movies in 3D.
    • Table 2: The game companies are increasing revenue but for most of them, profits are not increasing
    • Table 3: The above data was published in game developer forums and created by compiling numbers from post mortem articles in game developer magazines. It provides a useful snap shot of game development costs and time of development.
    • Table 4: A representative listing of rendering products
    • Table 5: Commercial modeling products vary by price and capability.

    2009 Digital Video Software Market Study

    The Digital Video market shows early effects of worldwide economic forces

    This study looks at the market for digital video software and includes software used for video editing, special effects, and compositing. It covers the software used by professionals and consumers. The digital video software market reached $1.5 billion in 2008. The market will remain flat in 2009 but it will start to recover in 2010 and see growth through 2013. JPR estimates the digital video market will grow to $2.3 billion by 2013 for a CAGR of 9% for the years 2007 to 2013.

    The digital video market is dominated by three major companies, Adobe, Apple, and Avid. In this difficult economy, the leaders have solidified their position

      2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    Worldwide forecast for Digital
    Video software ($M US dollars)
    CAGR-9%, 2007-2013     		1,480 1,485 1,474 1,533 1,763 2,028 2,332

    Digital Video 2009 Market Study

    • DV, Post, and Finishing  
      • Methodology  
      • What we do not cover in this market study  
    • Executive Summary  
        • Key findings  
    • The Market  
      • Segments  
        • Film/TV  
        • Broadcast
        • Corporate  
        • Small Business  
        • The consumer market  
      • Trends  
        • Format challenges  
        • Hardware support.  
        • The GPU  
        • Stereographics  
        • High Definition Workflows  
        • DVD market fundamentally changes  
        • Online and interactive  
        • New markets emerging for video  
        • The DI workflow  
        • The movie world is changing – Hollywood eclipsed  
      • Geography  
        • What’s new  
        • Avid gets back in the game  
        • Vegas 9 arrives and Sony plays nice  
        • Adobe rolls out CS4 and sees their efforts rewarded  
        • Apple in the wings  
        • The Foundry rolls out Nuke 6  
      • The consumer market  
        • Microsoft recreates Movie Maker  
        • Sonic acquires CinemaNow  
        • Roxio introduces focuses on point products  
      • User base  
        • Consumer  
      • Professional  
      • Forecast  

    Market Dynamics Created by the Embedded Graphics Processors

    Description

    Market Dynamics Created by the Embedded Graphics Processors-Impact on low end GPUs–a market study

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    The Market Dynamics Created by the Embedded Graphics Processors HPU market study is available now in electronic editions. This report can be purchased for $3,500 for a single user license, or $5,000 for a company-wide license. All TechWatch subscribers receive a 10% discount on this report. Please call (415-435-9368) or .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) to receive this discount.

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