Workstation market seeing some return of momentum in Q3’11

Last quarter, we labeled the workstation market's behavior with a simple one-word description: normal. Shipment results weren't great, but they weren't bad either. Now in less volatile times, no vendor would get enthused by such tepid numbers. But these haven't been those times.

Not that anyone in our industry needs the refresher, but remember that we hadn't really seen anything approaching typical behavior in several years. From mid-2008 to mid-2011, we lived through the biggest economic downturn in a generation, followed by a relatively steady, but not stutter-free, recovery. Meanwhile, the closely related market for professional graphics, its results a harbinger for workstations, found its recovery pace a bit too brisk, stumbling into a mild — and fortunately short-term — second dip.  In that context, the neither hot nor cold results from the workstation market's second quarter might not elicit any celebration, but we imagine they at least calmed some still-frayed nerves.

Q2's market stability begged the question: would there be a resumption of growth in the third quarter, more stability, or worse, a return to weakness. Well, the numbers are in, and they look good. Around 1.02 million workstations shipped worldwide in the third quarter, representing robust 12.5% sequential growth as well as 20.1% year-over-year. The quarter saw a new high-water mark for the market, marking the first time shipments have exceeded 1 million units.

Q3 did represent a meaningful push forward, but the question remains as to whether it will last. Global economic uncertainty remains in abundant supply. The financial picture in Europe continues to change on a daily basis — one minute, it's a doomsday scenario and the next a light appears at the end of the tunnel. Until the volatility in financial markets subsides, we have no strong confidence that the workstation market (really any market, for that matter) will find a steady pace forward. That said, we do expect growth to resume, albeit modestly.

Among vendors, HP reinforced its top position in workstations, despite the company's awkward about-face in its plans for the Personal Systems Group (PSG), the business unit that houses the company's workstation business. Dell remained at number two, though lagging further, while Lenovo gained ground at number three, in part thanks to its nascent joint venture with NEC. And in the closely related market for professional graphics hardware, Nvidia continued its dominance of the market, with its Quadro brand stubbornly refusing to cede much share to a more competitive FirePro line from AMD.

  • Methodology
    • Some – but not all - white-box coverage
    • Effective Q3'11, Lenovo inherits NEC workstation share
  • Workstation market seeing some return of momentum in Q3'11
    • ASPs in line with general market conditions and macro-trends
    • Workstation shares by machine class
      • The distribution of mobile versus deskside in workstations is very different than in broader PC markets
    • Workstation shares by vendor
    • HP escapes Apotheker's spin-off debacle relatively unscathed
    • It's not all about #1 and #2 any more … here comes Lenovo!
      • Vendor shares per segment
    • Intel stands alone as CPU supplier to the workstation industry
      • What happened to AMD CPUs for workstations?
      • Single versus multi-socket CPU
    • Windows dominates, with Linux holding minority share
    • Tier 1 distribution of workstations by geography
      • EMEA and APexJ: breakdowns by sub-region
  • Full-year calendar 2010 results for workstations
  • Professional graphics shipments remain in holding pattern in Q3'11
    • The quarter's highlight: stronger ASPs
    • Professional graphics hardware market breakdown by product class
    • AMD: relatively little to show for its improved execution
  • Full-year calendar 2010 results for professional graphics hardware
  • Outlook on the workstation and professional graphics markets
  • Appendix A: Workstation vendor shares per EMEA sub-region

Tables and figures

  • Table 1 Professional graphics more volatile, but a useful leading indicator for workstations
  • Table 2 Total workstation market revenue (in $M)
  • Table 3 Typical Q3'11 characteristics of desktop workstation classes
  • Table 4 Typical Q3'11 characteristics of mobile workstation classes
  • Table 5 History of workstation unit share by vendor
  • Table 6 Historical share of Windows and Linux in x86 based workstations
  • Table 7 Total workstations shipped by year (units and revenue)
  • Table 8 Yearly workstation ASPs (in dollars)
  • Table 9 Growth (loss) of Tier 1 vendors’ unit shares
  • Table 10 Worldwide shipments of professional graphics (K units, including mobiles)
  • Table 11 Worldwide quarterly revenue of professional graphics add-in cards ($M, no mobiles) 34
  • Table 12 Professional graphics hardware classes and price bands
  • Table 13 Professional graphics market share history by vendor (units)
  • Table 14 Professional graphics add-in card (no mobiles) revenue history by vendor
  • Table 15 Professional graphics hardware, yearly totals
  • Table 16 Professional graphics add-in card ASPs, yearly
  • Figure 1 Workstation ASPs over time
  • Figure 2 History of overall workstation unit distribution, by class
  • Figure 3 Unlike broader PC market, deskbound workstations still outsell mobiles ~3:1
  • Figure 4 In firm control as market leader, HP is further separating itself from #2 Dell
  • Figure 5 Shares of mobile workstation units, by vendor
  • Figure 6 Shares of Entry class workstation units, by vendor
  • Figure 7 Shares of Mid-range workstation units, by vendor
  • Figure 8 Intel shipments into Tier 1 workstation market by processor (unit share of Intel platform by processor)
  • Figure 9 The rise and fall of Opteron in the workstation platform
  • Figure 10 Share of dual-capable (not necessarily dual-populated) workstations as a percentage of all deskbound systems
  • Figure 11 Attach rate for the 2nd CPU in dual-capable deskbound workstations
  • Figure 12 Geographic distribution (by unit shipments) over time
  • Figure 13 Tier 1 vendor shares of U.S. over time
  • Figure 14 Tier 1 vendor shares of EMEA over time
  • Figure 15 Tier 1 vendor shares of Asia/Pac (excluding Japan) over time
  • Figure 16 Tier 1 vendor shares of Japan region time
  • Figure 17 Tier 1 vendor shares of Rest of World (ROW) region over time
  • Figure 18 EMEA breakdown by sub-region
  • Figure 19 Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) breakdown by sub-region
  • Figure 20 China sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 21 India sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 22 Rest of APexJ sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 23 Overall yearly workstation unit share by vendor
  • Figure 24 Overall yearly workstation revenue share by vendor
  • Figure 25 Worldwide shipments of professional graphics (K units, including mobiles)
  • Figure 26 Professional graphics card ASPs, by class over time
  • Figure 27 The ultra-high end in Q2’11 outsold the high end by a wide margin
  • Figure 28 Professional graphics unit share history, by class
  • Figure 29 Professional graphics add-in card revenue
  • Figure 30 Vendor unit share history: mobile professional graphics segment
  • Figure 31 Vendor unit share history: professional 2D add-in card segment
  • Figure 32 Vendor unit share history: entry 3D add-in card segment
  • Figure 33 Vendor unit share history: mid-range 3D add-in card segment
  • Figure 34 Vendor shares of combined High+Ultra-high professional segment over time
  • Figure 35 Workstation market forecast (units)

Workstation report

Description

Now in its twelfth year, JPR’s Workstation Report - Professional Computing Markets and Technologies has established itself as the essential reference guide for hardware and software vendors and suppliers serving the workstation and professional graphics markets.

The JPR Workstation Report series includes a breadth of market data and research, including six total reports issued over the year. All in all, a subscription entitles subscribers to:

Two extensive semi-annual reports, comprehensively assessing the state of the workstation and professional graphics industries
The service includes two semi-annual revisions of the JPR Workstation Report, a complete reference manual on the workstation and professional graphics businesses. Anything you want to know about the markets, technologies and industry players can be found in this all-inclusive report.

Four quarterly market bulletins covering both workstations and professional graphics
Also included in a year’s subscription are four quarterly market bulletins, each around 40 to 50 pages and timed to highlight the previous quarter’s (and year’s) results in the workstation and professional graphics hardware markets. Each quarterly comes with a companion XLS file, with a comprehensive array of tables and figures that go into more detail than the basic text of the bulletin. The market quarterlies are released around eight weeks after the close of the previous quarter.

Limited complementary access to workstation analyst
  While the service does not formally include any consulting hours, we welcome subscribers with periodic questions or inquiries pertaining to the report, market data and analysis. Such access is complementary (but limited). And of course, if a subscriber requires more lengthy and involved assistance, we can arrange for dedicated consulting services.

Reports are made available in soft PDF form (with complementary XLS for market data), downloadable via JPR’s web site.

 

Price List

A full annual subscription to the JPR Workstation Report Series is $7,500. A single comprehensive issue with two quarterly results is also available for $4,500.

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