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Predictions

Posted: 01.05.10

They’re pretty predicable—wrong. This is the time of year when everyone and their dog make predictions about what’s going to happen next year. I predict that this year, that will happen again (see, my accuracy count is already ahead). I was thinking about all the predictions we’ve heard and how many of them came true —very few.

Worst prediction? One of my favorite DA (dumb ass) predictions was how the world would come to a screeching halt on 00:001 01.01.2000 because computers could only go to 1999. I haven’t seen a decimal-based computer in quite a while, and 1999 is not a base binary number. So when it didn’t happen, (some folks sold their home and stood naked on their lawns waiting for the rapture so they were pretty pissed off about it). The experts said the problems were solved because they sounded the alarm and new computers were bought and software patched and things got taken care of. Yeah, like industry or mankind ever heeds a warning—did I tell you a hurricane will hit New Orleans?

Biggest missed prediction? No one (except maybe Nigel Dessau at AMD) predicted Larrabee would be canceled.

Second biggest missed prediction? Intel will settle with AMD make payment to AMD, who saw that coming?

Some classic wrong predictions (not by me, thankfully):

  • Microsoft will buy Yahoo. (need the definition of “buy” worked out).
  • Stereo (“3D”) will revolutionize PC games. (When will the revolution start?)
  • Sony will announce the PSP2 with Nvidia graphics.
  • Intel will acquire Nvidia.
  • Apple will introduce a tablet (timing, it’s everything).

Some predictions that weren’t made:

  • Oracle will buy Sun.
  • Disney will buy Marvel comics.
  • HP will buy 3Com.

So who the hell knows anything, really, except maybe 30 days ahead and then only with insider information. Best any of us can do is guess. We say we use our experience, our wisdom, our cynicism, or what—our mystical abilities? Horsefeathers—you’re guessing and hoping it comes true so folks will come back and ask for another guess.

The supersmart stockmarket traders, the same folks who are making the buy, sell, put decisions on your 401k, are doing the same thing—guessing. Reading tea leaves, dried up bones, and cloud shapes to predict what AMD’s, Broadcom’s Intel’s, Nvidia’s, or Qualcomm’s stock will do based on rumors in the Inquirer, Digitimes, and “the talk” on Wall Street. These are the same folks who think Micron makes potato chips, Nvidia is pronounced naVIDha, and VIA is a passage way.

And every time you snicker at some DA comment made by some DA web blogger or poster, just remember, your DA stock broker is reading that and playing with your money.

In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Why’s that? Well, dummy, because he can see the road ahead, that’s why. So, are the web posters the one-eyed man and you’re just blind? Blind with ignorance or fear? Who dresses you in the morning and packs your lunch? Are you going to commit your future to someone else’s predictions? Why are his or hers better than your own? For crying out loud, you’re actually working in the industry—what are they doing; sitting in a coffee shop or their mom’s cellar pecking at a keyboard?

Here’s a prediction—fools accept other’s predictions—read about it on the ten o’clock new.

Cautions on predicting. The Mayans never predicted anything. 21-12-2012 isn’t the next 01.01.2000—keep your clothes on, don’t sell the house.

My prediction? Lots of predictions will be made in 2010—most will be wrong, even one or two of mine.