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Moderate sales in the first quarter, the GPU industry starts to gear up for Q3

Posted: 05.23.17
OEMs and distributors will clear out inventories to make room for new products

Overall GPU shipments decreased seasonally, -17.5% from last quarter. AMD decreased -25%, Nvidia decreased -26% and Intel, decreased -14%.

Year-to-year total GPU shipments decreased -4.5%, desktop graphics decreased -13%, notebooks increased 2%.

A three-month running average shows discrete GPUs (dGPU) increasing in overall market share against integrated GPUs (iGPU), for the past two years.

However, in overall market share, Intel showed the highest gain in the quarter, which was seasonally down overall. 

The GPU market and the PC market in general, seems to have to have returned to normal seasonal cycles. This quarter was therefore appropriately down (normally it is flat to down), and the Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, was once again the bright spot in the overall PC market for the quarter.

Figure 1: Overall GPU shipments quarter to quarter were flat, but AMD and Nvidia saw share gain

The enthusiasm for tablets has subsided, and the PC market seems to have stabilized as users realize a tablet is useful for a lot of things, but can never replace a PC for performance, screen size, or upgradability.

The first quarter is typically flat to down from the previous quarter in the seasonal cycles of the past. For Q1'17 it decreased -17.5% from last quarter, and was below the ten-year average of -6%.

Quick highlights
AMD’s overall unit shipments decreased -24.81% quarter-to-quarter, Intel’s total shipments decreased -13.91% from last quarter, and Nvidia’s decreased -25.64%.

  • The attach rate of GPUs (includes integrated and discrete GPUs) to PCs for the quarter was 136% which was down -4.75% from last quarter.
  • Discrete GPUs were in 31.36% of PCs, which is down -4.57%.
  • The overall PC market decreased -14.65% quarter-to-quarter, and decreased -1.74% year-to-year.
  • Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs) that use discrete GPUs decreased -29.83% from last quarter.

Q1'17 saw a no change in tablet shipments from last quarter.

The first quarter is, on average, flat to down from the previous quarter, reflecting seasonality which has finally seemed to reestablish itself in the market.

GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped, and most of the PC vendors are guiding cautiously for Q4’14. The Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, was a bright spot in the market in the quarter.

The report contains the following content:

  • Worldwide GPU and PC Shipment Volume, 1994 to 2020.
  • Detailed worldwide GPU Shipment Volume, 1Q 2001 to 2Q 2016, and forecast to 2020.
  • Major suppliers: Detailed market share data-on the shipments of AMD, Intel, Nvidia, and others.
  • Financial results for the leading suppliers: Analysis of the quarterly results of the leading GPU suppliers
  • Market Forecasts: You will also be able to download a detailed spreadsheet and supporting charts that project the supplier’s shipments over the period 2001 to 2018. Projections are split into platforms and GPU type.
  • GPUs: History, Status, and Analysis.
  • Financial History from for the last nine quarter: Based on historic SEC filings, you can see current and historical sales and profit results of the leading suppliers. 
  • A Vision of the future: Building upon a solid foundation of facts, data and sober analysis, this section pulls together all of the report's findings and paints a vivid picture of where the PC graphics market is headed. 
  • Charts, graphics, tables and more: Included with this report is an Excel workbook. It contains the data we used to create the charts in this report. The workbook has the charts and supplemental information.

The global GPU market demand in Q1'17 decreased from the previous quarter, and decreased from last year, to 82.67 million units. However, as Figure 5 shows, While PC shipments have returned to predictable patterns, graphics shipments have been steadily increasing over time.

Our research finds that global GPU market demand in Q4'16 increased seasonally, and the sales in the first quarter of 2017 declined seasonally. The surge in shipments seen in 2010 and 11, is attributed to the pent-up demand created by the 2009 financial crisis, and the market seems to have stabilized, albeit with a slight downward trend. However, we are anticipating a slow, but steady increase in shipments going forward. As with any report involving data collection and modeling, we use assumptions in the analysis for forecasting.

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the PC Gaming Hardware Market, which covers the total market including system and accessories, and looks at 31 countries. More information can be found here: www.jonpeddie.com/publications/pc_gaming_hardware_market_report/

The quarter in general
AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs, for desktops decreased -22.2% from the previous quarter. AMD's APU shipments were down -18.8% in notebooks. Desktop discrete GPUs decreased -34.6% from last quarter, and notebook discrete shipments decreased -16.0%. AMD’s total PC graphics shipments decreased -24.8% from the previous quarter.

Intel’s desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by -10.5% and notebook processors decreased by -8.0%, and total PC graphics shipments decreased -13.9% from last quarter.

Nvidia’s desktop discrete GPU shipments were down -27.8% from last quarter; and the company’s notebook discrete GPU shipments decreased -23.0%, and total PC graphics shipments decreased -25.6% from last quarter.

Total discrete GPUs (desktop and notebook) shipments for the industry decreased -25.5% from the last quarter, and decreased -6.0% from last year. Sales of discrete GPUs fluctuate due to a variety of factors (timing, memory pricing, etc.), new product introductions, and the influence of integrated graphics. Overall, the CAGR from 2014 to 2017 is now -9%.

Ninety nine percent of Intel’s non-server processors have graphics, and over 66% of AMD’s non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships integrated graphics chipsets (IGPs).

For those who wish to understand the PC market, an understanding of the highly complex technology and ecosystem that has been built around the GPU is essential to understanding the market’s future directions.

Graphics chips (GPUs) and chips with graphics (IGPs, APUs, and EPGs) GPUs shipments are a leading indicator for the PC market. At least one and often two GPUs are present in every PC shipped. It can take the form of a discrete chip, a GPU integrated in the chipset or embedded in the CPU. The average has grown from 1.2 GPUs per PC in 2001 to 1.36 GPUs per PC.

This detailed 50-page report will provide you with all the data, analysis and insight you need to clearly understand where this technology is today and where it's headed.

Our findings include discrete and integrated graphics (CPU and chipset) for Desktops, Notebooks (and Netbooks). It does not include iPad and Android-based tablets, or ARM-based Servers, or x86-based servers. It does include x86-based tablets, Chromebooks, and embedded systems.

Pricing and Availability
The Jon Peddie Research's Market Watch is available now in both electronic and hard copy editions, and sells for $2,500. Included with this report is an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's Market Watch is $5,000 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive Tech Watch (the company's bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription. 

Click here to learn more about this major report, or to download it now. Or, for more information call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at www.jonpeddie.com.
Contact Robert Dow at JPR (Robert@jonpeddie.com) for a free sample of TechWatch. 

About Jon Peddie Research
Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon Peddie Research is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based in Tiburon, California, JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technology companies in a variety of fields including graphics development, multimedia for professional applications and consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development. Jon Peddie'sMarket Watch is a quarterly report focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for notebook and desktop computing.