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Volume is no promise of success: 300pg JPR report on semiconductor opportunities in handheld market

Posted: 06.05.07
Report identifies sectors for growth, predicts consolidation, forecasts trends

Tiburon, California, June 5, 2007—Marketing and consulting firm Jon Peddie Research today announced the release of its latest 300-page report, Handheld Multimedia Devices 2nd Edition. The report is based on two years of extensive research and identifies opportunities in multimedia for semiconductor, IP, software, sensors, and tuner suppliers in handheld devices such as mobile phones.

JPR has been studying, lecturing worldwide, and reporting on the handheld market since 2000 and has widely canvassed the companies and individuals in this field to obtain product information, trend data, market sizing and forecasts, and competitive issues for the current report.

“Based on our extensive survey of hundreds of managers and engineers in the mobile market, clearly everyone is dazzled by the volume of handheld units shipped,” said JPR President Dr. Jon Peddie. “This is a serious mistake that has led to the failure of projects and companies as overall market volume is no predictor of profits or success.”

Handheld Multimedia Devices 2nd Edition identifies market consolidation of suppliers (from 44 down to 26 with more assimilations and failures expected), the unrelenting march of Moore's Law and its impact on Co-Processors, applications processors, media processors, and baseband processors, as well as the role of IP in the design and development of these devices. Some of the conclusions and forecasts made in the report are:

• Opportunities are extremely limited for semiconductor startups, and all but closed to entrepreneurs.

• Critical mass in engineering and IP represents major barriers to entry.

• Co-processors will be assimilated by SoCs.

• No killer app per se, but TV on mobile devices looks very promising.

• Open standards and APIs will enable the market.

• Low-cost phones are not the highest growth market by any metric.

• Game development will finally take off in 2007—many acquisitions of game developer companies are expected.

“The window is closed for startups,” says Peddie. “The operators, handset manufacturers, and even the ODMs want to deal with big firms that will be able to supply large volumes of parts over many years; young companies without a solid track record present too much of a gamble.”

WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES?

JPR segments the market into three major categories:

• High End: Smart phones—open platforms and maximum multimedia and data capabilities

• Midrange: Feature phones—closed but upgradeable and customizable systems but with very good multimedia and data capabilities

• Low End: Low-end phones—closed systems with limited multimedia and data capabilities

Sales forecasts (in millions of units worldwide) of the three segments listed above.

CAGR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

High End 2006-10 CAGR: 25% 111.8 152.4 192.2 232.8 277.2

Midrange 2006-10 CAGR: 16% 297.9 349.0 404.5 469.8 532.9

Low End 2006-10 CAGR: -1% 482.6 483.0 480.0 472.9 464.5

“While the industry sees great promise for selling mobile phones into high-population emerging markets, it is vital to remember that median monthly incomes are $40 or less, “says Peddie. “It's not exactly the pot of gold some people think it is, even if you can build a $30 phone, but there are indeed opportunities in low-cost phones.”

Handheld Multimedia Devices 2nd Edition includes sections addressing the following questions:

• How big is the market for Application, Media, and Co-processors, as well as for IP cores?

• How will the market for 2D/3D graphics Co-Processor accelerators evolve over the next five years?

• What are the market segmentations for handheld devices, and how does one change over time?

• Will all phones have cameras?

• Will all phones have TV?

• Will all phones play games, locally and/or online?

• Which API technology will dominate the market by 2011?

• Which new innovative solutions should be looked out for?

• How will display technologies improve by 2011?

• Will games be a major market?

• What is the killer app?

• Has market consolidation begun, and when does it end?

Companies and organizations examined in this report

This 300-page report examines several companies and organizations in order to get as complete picture of the market as possible. Following are the major companies (not all) referenced in the report.

Processor and IP companies: 3Dlabs Semiconductor, AMD, ARM, ATI, Atsana, Broadcom, DMedia-Processor, Emblaze , Epson, Freescale , GiQuilla, Imagination Technology, Intel, MagicEyes, Marvell, MtekVision, Nazomi, NEC, NeoMagic, NexusChips, Nvidia, Panasonic, NXP, Qualcomm, Renesas Technology, Samsung, Smedia, STmicroelectronics, Takumi, Texas Instruments, Toshiba, VirtualDigm, and Zoran

Other companies: Alphamosaic, Alpha Imaging Technology, Analog Devices, Bitboys, C&S Technology, Chipnuts, CoreLogic, C&S Technology, Dibcom, Falanx, Fathammer, Hantro, HiCorp, Hitachi, Hybrid, InFusio, LG Electronics, LSI Logic, Microsoft, Mitsubishi Electric, Moblic, Nethra Imaging, Omnivision, PortalPlayer, ReakoSys, Siano, Superscape, Symbian, Varioptic, Voom, MediaQ, and UIQ

Organizations: BREW, FutureMark, International Imaging Industry, Khronos, Kishonti Informatics, MIPI, and OMA

JPR's Handheld Multimedia Devices 2nd Edition, contains 300 pages, 39 tables, and 167 diagrams and illustrations, an extensive appendix and company profiles, and is available for $4,999 for an electronic version.