If AMD and Nvidia can sell chips to China, will it be profitable?

A 25% cost-of-goods hit comes out of the gross margin.

December 11, 2025

Jon Peddie

President Trump authorized Nvidia H200 chip sales to China with a 25% export fee, despite earlier lifting restrictions on lower-performance H20 chips. China’s Cyberspace Administration discouraged purchases due to security concerns and promoted domestic alternatives from Huawei and Cambricon. The fee reduces Nvidia’s margins through increased Costs of Goods Sold (COGS) rather than direct deductions. Simultaneously, authorities dismantled smuggling operations exporting chips illegally. China did not issue a formal ban but used regulatory guidance to frame restrictions as national security measures, while advancing the development of indigenous AI chips. As you no doubt have heard, on Monday, President Trump announced

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If AMD and Nvidia can sell chips to China, will it be profitable?

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